Dundalk 0-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 April 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.98 xG and Bohemians 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.962 / defence 1.274 | Bohemians attack 0.723 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 0.884 / away 1.042. Data: 3 Dundalk games / 3 Bohemians games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 35% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 34%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Bohemians 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 9 Apr 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 35% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Dundalk 0.98 / Bohemians 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.962 / def 1.274 | Bohemians attack 0.723 / def 1.153 | league avg home 0.884 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Bohemians xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Bohemians kick off?
Dundalk vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 9 April 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Dundalk 0 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Dundalk vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Bohemians part of?
Dundalk vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 35% chance of winning, Bohemians a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Dundalk and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.96) and Bohemians's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.72x) against Dundalk's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
35%
2.87
31%
3.18
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.94
0.96
Bohemians xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.8 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.96 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Bohemians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
3
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Bohemians have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Bohemians defy the odds to beat Dundalk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Dundalk 0-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.98 xG and Bohemians 0.96 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dundalk fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against Bohemians attack 0.72 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 35% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 34%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.