Finn Harps 2-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Finn Harps vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Waterford make the trip to Finn Park to face Finn Harps in Premier Division, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.96 xG and Waterford 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.988 / defence 1.023 | Waterford attack 0.860 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 0.829 / away 1.045. Data: 3 Finn Harps games / 3 Waterford games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 35% | Draw 32% | Waterford 33%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Waterford 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Finn Harps at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Finn Harps if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 35% | Draw 32% | Waterford 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Finn Harps 0.96 / Waterford 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.988 / def 1.023 | Waterford attack 0.860 / def 1.169 | league avg home 0.829 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Waterford xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Waterford kick off?
Finn Harps vs Waterford kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 April 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Waterford?
Finn Harps 2 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Finn Harps vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Waterford part of?
Finn Harps vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 35% chance of winning, Waterford a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Finn Harps and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Finn Harps and Waterford in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 0.99x the league average against Waterford's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waterford's attack (0.86x) against Finn Harps's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
35%
2.86
32%
3.12
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
1.88
0.92
Waterford xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 14.1 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Finn Harps and 0.92 for Waterford, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
Waterford
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Waterford have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waterford won 4-1 on 15 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Finn Harps have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Waterford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Finn Harps
0
Draws
2
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Waterford?
From 4 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 2, Waterford have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2021, when Waterford 4-1 Finn Harps.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Finn Harps edge out Waterford 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps beat Waterford 2-1 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 0.96 xG and Waterford 0.92 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Finn Harps beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Waterford attack 0.86 / defence 1.17, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 35% | Draw 32% | Waterford 33%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.