St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Derry City travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 April 2021, 17:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.25 xG and Derry City 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.116 / defence 1.139 | Derry City attack 0.718 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 0.858 / away 1.109. Derry City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 St Patrick's Athl. games / 2 Derry City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 29% | Derry City 27%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Derry City 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 9 Apr 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 29% | Derry City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.25 / Derry City 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.116 / def 1.139 | Derry City attack 0.718 / def 1.302 | league avg home 0.858 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Derry City xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 9 April 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 0 Derry City.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 44% chance of winning, Derry City a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.12) and Derry City's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
44%
2.27
29%
3.46
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.16
0.91
Derry City xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.91 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
Derry City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Derry City specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derry City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Derry City 2-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.25 xG and Derry City 0.91 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Derry City landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.12 / defence 1.14 against Derry City attack 0.72 / defence 1.30, drawn from 3/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 29% | Derry City 27%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.