Sligo Rovers 1-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.91 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.955 / defence 1.148 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.829 / away 1.045. Data: 3 Sligo Rovers games / 2 Shamrock Rovers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 31% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 37%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Shamrock Rovers 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 31% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.91 / Shamrock Rovers 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.955 / def 1.148 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.829 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Shamrock Rovers xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 April 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 31% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.95x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (0.85x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (3/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
31%
3.19
31%
3.18
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.93
1.02
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 14.8 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.02 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 on 13 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 4, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 4, as Sligo Rovers and Shamrock Rovers drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.91 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.02 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 31% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 37%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.