Galway United 2-4 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Galway United vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Galway United host Bohemians at Eamonn Deacy Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Galway United stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Galway United's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Eamonn Deacy Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Galway United are significantly better at Eamonn Deacy Park than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Galway United 1.00 PPG, Bohemians 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Galway United, 3 for Bohemians and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Bohemians winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Galway United trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bohemians trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galway United 47% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Galway United 31% | Bohemians 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galway United 1.24 xG and Bohemians 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galway United attack 1.070 / defence 1.291 | Bohemians attack 1.086 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.230. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Galway United games / 53 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galway United 27% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 48%. Fair-value odds: Galway United 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 2.08. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Galway United 70% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galway United vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Eamonn Deacy Park • Kick-off: Friday 22 May 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galway United 27% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Galway United 1.24 / Bohemians 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Galway United attack 1.070 / def 1.291 | Bohemians attack 1.086 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Galway United xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Bohemians xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galway United vs Bohemians kick off?
Galway United vs Bohemians kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 22 May 2026 at Eamonn Deacy Park.
What was the final score in Galway United vs Bohemians?
Galway United 2 - 4 Bohemians.
Where is Galway United vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Eamonn Deacy Park.
What competition is Galway United vs Bohemians part of?
Galway United vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Galway United vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Galway United a 27% chance of winning, Bohemians a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galway United vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Galway United and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Galway United vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galway United and Bohemians?
Record (8 meetings): Galway United 3W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 3W.
What form are Galway United and Bohemians in?
Galway United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Galway United's attack at 1.07x the league average against Bohemians's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Galway United's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
27%
3.69
25%
4.03
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Galway United xG
Total xG
2.97
1.72
Bohemians xG
3.69
27%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
5%
20.70
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galway United vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Galway United and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Galway United and 1.72 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Galway United vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Galway United have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 22W 25D 25L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 26W 18D 28L from 72 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Galway United on 1.26 PPG, Bohemians on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Galway United have posted 1.47 PPG from 36 outings (14W 11D 11L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 12W 10D 14L from 36 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Galway United are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.21 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galway United
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galway United and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Galway United have gone 22W 25D 25L in their last 72 games (1.26 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galway United at home or Bohemians away?
Galway United's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galway United at home: 1.47 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Galway United and Bohemians runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2025, when Bohemians won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Galway United's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Galway United
3
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galway United and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Galway United have won 3, Bohemians have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Galway United and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Bohemians 1-1 Galway United.
Who has won more matches between Galway United and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Galway United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Galway United 50%, Bohemians 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Galway United) and 42% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Galway United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bohemians in 31%; Galway United have failed to score in 28% of games; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galway United home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galway United play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Galway United's recent matches and 47% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Galway United vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Galway United's recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Galway United and Bohemians tend to score early?
Galway United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Galway United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Galway United 2-4 at Eamonn Deacy Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galway United 1.24 xG and Bohemians 1.72 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Bohemians outscored their 1.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galway United attack 1.07 / defence 1.29 against Bohemians attack 1.09 / defence 0.79, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galway United 27% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 48%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galway United 31%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galway United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Galway United 1.26 PPG, Bohemians 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Galway United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.