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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Galway United vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Galway United host Bohemians at Eamonn Deacy Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Galway United stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Galway United's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Eamonn Deacy Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Galway United are significantly better at Eamonn Deacy Park than their overall form suggests.

Bohemians — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bohemians's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Galway United 1.00 PPG, Bohemians 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Galway United, 4 for Bohemians and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Bohemians winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Season Statistics

Galway United's full-season record stands at 9W 12D 15L from 36 games. Attacking returns: 1.0 goals per game; defensive: 1.2 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 12 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 36 games (3%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 3-5-2. Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

The visitors have accumulated 16W 6D 14L from their 36 Premier Division appearances this term. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 13 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 36 games (19%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.

Bohemians lead on clean sheets this season (13 vs 5). Bohemians score 2+ goals far more often (19% vs 3%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Galway United 3/3 vs Bohemians 5/5 this season.

In-Play Data

Galway United trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Bohemians trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galway United 47% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Galway United 31% | Bohemians 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Galway United 1.24 xG and Bohemians 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galway United attack 1.070 / defence 1.291 | Bohemians attack 1.086 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.230. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Galway United games / 53 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Galway United 27% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 48%. Fair-value odds: Galway United 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 2.08. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Galway United 70% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.

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