St Patrick's Athl. 2-2 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as St Patrick's Athl. face Finn Harps.

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Analysis

Finn Harps make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Friday 12 November 2021 at 19:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

St Patrick's Athl. have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

St Patrick's Athl.'s home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Finn Harps (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Finn Harps have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for St Patrick's Athl. against 1.10 for Finn Harps. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 1 for Finn Harps and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2021, ended St Patrick's Athl. 1–3 Finn Harps — a Finn Harps win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

St Patrick's Athl. half-time and goal-timing data (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Finn Harps half-time and goal-timing data (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 56% versus Finn Harps 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Finn Harps 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.61 xG and Finn Harps 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.015 / defence 1.222 | Finn Harps attack 0.862 / defence 1.485. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.157. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.485 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output up. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Finn Harps's projected output up. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 34 games and Finn Harps's last 34.

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 46% | Draw 25% | Finn Harps 29%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.15 | Draw 4.07 | Finn Harps 3.46. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 40% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 60% (last 10 away games).

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