St Patrick's Athl. 2-2 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Finn Harps make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Friday 12 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

St Patrick's Athl. have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

St Patrick's Athl.'s home record at Richmond Park: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.

Finn Harps (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

On the road, Finn Harps have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for St Patrick's Athl. against 1.10 for Finn Harps. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — St Patrick's Athl. lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Finn Harps winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

St Patrick's Athl. half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Finn Harps half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 56% versus Finn Harps 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Finn Harps 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.61 xG and Finn Harps 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.015 / defence 1.222 | Finn Harps attack 0.862 / defence 1.485. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.157. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.485 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 St Patrick's Athl. games / 34 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 46% | Draw 25% | Finn Harps 29%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Finn Harps 3.45. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Finn Harps 60%.

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