Dundalk 1-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derry City away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Dundalk's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dundalk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Derry City in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 63% and Derry City 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 46% | Derry City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.41 xG and Derry City 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.052 / defence 1.041 | Derry City attack 0.941 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.140. Derry City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Dundalk games / 35 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 44% | Draw 26% | Derry City 30%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Derry City 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 60% | Derry City 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 44% | Draw 26% | Derry City 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Dundalk 1.41 / Derry City 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.052 / def 1.041 | Derry City attack 0.941 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Derry City xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Derry City kick off?
Dundalk vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 November 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Dundalk 1 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Dundalk vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Derry City part of?
Dundalk vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 44% chance of winning, Derry City a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dundalk and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Derry City (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.05) and Derry City's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.94x) against Dundalk's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.78
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.53
1.12
Derry City xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
7%
13.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.12 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 13W 9D 13L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 13W 12D 10L from 35 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Dundalk against 1.46 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.71 PPG from 17 outings (9W 2D 6L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 7W 4D 6L from 17 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.34 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Derry City in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 13L in their last 35 games (1.37 PPG), while Derry City have gone 13W 12D 10L in their last 35 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Derry City away?
Dundalk's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.71 PPG; Derry City away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
5
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Derry City have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 65%, Derry City 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Dundalk) and 47% (Derry City).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Dundalk's games and 59% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Dundalk's recent games and 47% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Derry City tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Derry City in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Dundalk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Dundalk 1-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.41 xG and Derry City 1.12 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against Derry City attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 44% | Draw 26% | Derry City 30%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 46%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.37 PPG, Derry City 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.