Sligo Rovers 1-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 5W 1D 4L at The Showgrounds — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.30 for Bohemians. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Bohemians — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 40% versus Bohemians 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 31% | Bohemians 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.33 xG and Bohemians 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.941 / defence 0.905 | Bohemians attack 1.042 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.140. Bohemians bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Sligo Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Sligo Rovers games / 35 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 42% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 30%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sligo Rovers are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sligo Rovers 40% | Bohemians 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 42% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.33 / Bohemians 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.941 / def 0.905 | Bohemians attack 1.042 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Bohemians xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 November 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 42% chance of winning, Bohemians a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.94x the league average against Bohemians's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.04x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.65
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.40
1.07
Bohemians xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.07 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 35 games, going 16W 8D 11L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.46 PPG from 35 outings (14W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.46 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 8W 4D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.18 points per game from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sligo Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.69 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 66%.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 16W 8D 11L in their last 35 games (1.60 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 14W 9D 12L in their last 35 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Bohemians away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.65 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bohemians in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
6
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Bohemians have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 41%, Bohemians 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Sligo Rovers) and 47% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 65% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 47% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Bohemians tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sligo Rovers and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers and Bohemians finished level at 1-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.33 xG and Bohemians 1.07 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Bohemians attack 1.04 / defence 1.28, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 42% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 30%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 31%, Bohemians 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.60 PPG, Bohemians 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.