Dundalk 1-3 Bohemians – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Dundalk at 40%, yet in-form Bohemians provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:45 UK time.

Current Form

Dundalk's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Dundalk's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Bohemians have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Bohemians have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Bohemians arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Dundalk, 3 for Bohemians and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Mar 2026, ended Dundalk 1–1 Bohemians — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Bohemians 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | Bohemians 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dundalk surrender their half-time lead 57% of the time, while Bohemians have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.31 xG and Bohemians 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.107 / defence 0.967 | Bohemians attack 0.945 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.184. Bohemians bring a tight defence (rating 0.782, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dundalk's projected output down. Data: built from Dundalk's last 15 games and Bohemians's last 51.

Result probabilities: Dundalk 40% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 29%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.51 | Draw 3.20 | Bohemians 3.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dundalk's last 10 home games and Bohemians's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Dundalk 20% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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