Drogheda United 1-2 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Drogheda United take on Shelbourne.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Shelbourne meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Drogheda United's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Drogheda United have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Drogheda United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shelbourne have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shelbourne arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Drogheda United, 1 for Shelbourne and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2025, ended Drogheda United 2–1 Shelbourne — a Drogheda United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 53% versus Shelbourne 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 47% | Shelbourne 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Drogheda United surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Shelbourne have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.19 xG and Shelbourne 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 1.089 / defence 0.911 | Shelbourne attack 1.087 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.016. Data: built from Drogheda United's last 39 games and Shelbourne's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 36% | Draw 37% | Shelbourne 27%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Shelbourne 3.71. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Drogheda United's last 10 home games and Shelbourne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Drogheda United 40% (last 10 home games) | Shelbourne 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Drogheda United 39 games, Shelbourne 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 4 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 36% | Draw 37% | Shelbourne 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Drogheda United 1.19 / Shelbourne 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 1.089 / def 0.911 | Shelbourne attack 1.087 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Shelbourne xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Drogheda United vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does Drogheda United vs Shelbourne kick off?
Drogheda United vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 27 February 2026 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Shelbourne?
Drogheda United 1 - 2 Shelbourne.
Where is Drogheda United vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Shelbourne part of?
Drogheda United vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 4) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 36% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Drogheda United and Shelbourne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Drogheda United vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Drogheda United's attack at 1.09x the league average against Shelbourne's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.09x) against Drogheda United's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Drogheda United's last 39 games and Shelbourne's last 38, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.78
37%
2.70
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.19
1.01
Shelbourne xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
8%
12.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Drogheda United vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.01 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Drogheda United come into this having played 72 games, going 20W 28D 24L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.69 PPG from 72 outings (32W 26D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Drogheda United's home form reads 14W 14D 8L across their last 36 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.64 points per game from their last 36 away games (15W 14D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Drogheda United are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.22 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
Drogheda United (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Drogheda United
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Drogheda United vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are Drogheda United and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 20W 28D 24L in their last 72 games (1.22 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 32W 26D 14L in their last 72 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.56 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Drogheda United and Shelbourne, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Drogheda United
4
Draws
2
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Drogheda United vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Shelbourne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Drogheda United have won 4, Shelbourne have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Shelbourne 1-2 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and Shelbourne?
Drogheda United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 53%, Shelbourne 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Drogheda United) and 31% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Shelbourne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Drogheda United vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Drogheda United and Shelbourne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 53% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Drogheda United and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Drogheda United's recent games and 31% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 69% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat Drogheda United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Drogheda United 1-2 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.19 xG and Shelbourne 1.01 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shelbourne outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Shelbourne attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 36% | Draw 37% | Shelbourne 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 47%, Shelbourne 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.