Shamrock Rovers 3-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 7 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Shamrock Rovers against 1.50 for Dundalk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dundalk in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shamrock Rovers lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Dundalk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Dundalk — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shamrock Rovers 54% and Dundalk 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 42% | Dundalk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.76 xG and Dundalk 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.146 / defence 0.839 | Dundalk attack 0.984 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.239. Data: 62 Shamrock Rovers games / 26 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 52% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 19%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Dundalk 5.26. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 60% | Dundalk 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 52% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.76 / Dundalk 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.146 / def 0.839 | Dundalk attack 0.984 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Dundalk xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 August 2026 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers 3 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 52% chance of winning, Dundalk a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Record (9 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 4W | Draws 2 | Dundalk 3W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.98x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 62/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
52%
1.94
29%
3.39
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.78
1.02
Dundalk xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
3%
30.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.02 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 26 games, going 15W 6D 5L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (9W 10D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Dundalk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 9W 2D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.42 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.96 PPG overall — Shamrock Rovers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.25 points per game from 12 outings (3W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.54 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk in 73%.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 6D 5L in their last 26 games (1.96 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 9W 10D 7L in their last 26 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.42 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Dundalk in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Dundalk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 3-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for Shamrock Rovers, 75% for Dundalk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Shamrock Rovers) and 50% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 75% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 50% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Dundalk 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Dundalk 3-2 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.76 xG and Dundalk 1.02 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dundalk outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.15 / defence 0.84 against Dundalk attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 62/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 52% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 19%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 42%, Dundalk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.