Drogheda United 1-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Derry City at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Drogheda United vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Derry City meet at Weavers Park in Premier Division (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Drogheda United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Derry City (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derry City away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Drogheda United, 2 for Derry City and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Mar 2026, ended Drogheda United 2–2 Derry City — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 53% versus Derry City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 47% | Derry City 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Drogheda United surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Derry City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 0.97 xG and Derry City 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.815 / defence 1.035 | Derry City attack 0.896 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.184. Derry City bring a tight defence (rating 0.788, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Drogheda United's projected output down. Data: built from Drogheda United's last 50 games and Derry City's last 51.
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 30% | Draw 34% | Derry City 36%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 3.37 | Draw 2.94 | Derry City 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Drogheda United's last 10 home games and Derry City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Drogheda United 40% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 16 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 30% | Draw 34% | Derry City 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Drogheda United 0.97 / Derry City 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.815 / def 1.035 | Derry City attack 0.896 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Derry City (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Derry City xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Drogheda United vs Derry City FAQs
What time does Drogheda United vs Derry City kick off?
Drogheda United vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 8 May 2026 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Drogheda United 1 - 0 Derry City.
Where is Drogheda United vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Derry City part of?
Drogheda United vs Derry City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 16) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 30% chance of winning, Derry City a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Drogheda United and Derry City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Drogheda United vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Drogheda United's attack rating (0.81) and Derry City's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.90x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Drogheda United's last 50 games and Derry City's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
30%
3.37
34%
2.94
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.07
1.10
Derry City xG
3.37
30%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.9 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Drogheda United vs Derry City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.10 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 20W 28D 24L from 72 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 32W 22D 18L across 72 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derry City by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Drogheda United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 14W 14D 8L from their last 36 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derry City's away record stands at 14W 10D 12L across their last 36 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Drogheda United are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.39 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
Drogheda United (Home) vs Derry City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Drogheda United
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Drogheda United vs Derry City Form FAQs
What form are Drogheda United and Derry City in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 20W 28D 24L in their last 72 games (1.22 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Derry City away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.56 PPG; Derry City away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Derry City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Drogheda United and Derry City, the earliest from June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won Derry City 5-1 Drogheda United on 28 Jun 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Drogheda United
3
Draws
3
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Drogheda United vs Derry City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Derry City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Drogheda United have won 4, Derry City have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Derry City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Drogheda United 2-0 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and Derry City?
Drogheda United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 53%, Derry City 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Drogheda United) and 36% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Derry City in 39%; Derry City in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Drogheda United vs Derry City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Drogheda United and Derry City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 42% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Drogheda United and Derry City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Drogheda United's recent games and 36% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Derry City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 61% of Derry City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Drogheda United defy the odds to beat Derry City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat Derry City 1-0 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 0.97 xG and Derry City 1.10 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derry City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.81 / defence 1.03 against Derry City attack 0.90 / defence 0.79, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 30% | Draw 34% | Derry City 36%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Drogheda United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 47%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Drogheda United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Drogheda United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.