Bohemians 1-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Derry City in Premier Division (matchday 14). Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bohemians's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Bohemians have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Derry City (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derry City have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Derry City edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Feb 2026, ended Bohemians 1–0 Derry City — a Bohemians win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Derry City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | Derry City 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bohemians surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Derry City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.00 xG and Derry City 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.856 / defence 1.011 | Derry City attack 0.902 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.160. Derry City bring a tight defence (rating 0.793, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Bohemians's projected output down. Data: built from Bohemians's last 49 games and Derry City's last 49.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 33% | Derry City 35%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.11 | Draw 3.07 | Derry City 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 40% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 14 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 33% | Derry City 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Bohemians 1.00 / Derry City 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.856 / def 1.011 | Derry City attack 0.902 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Derry City (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Derry City xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Derry City FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Derry City kick off?
Bohemians vs Derry City kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 1 May 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Bohemians 1 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Bohemians vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Derry City part of?
Bohemians vs Derry City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 14) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 32% chance of winning, Derry City a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bohemians and Derry City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Bohemians vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.90x) against Bohemians's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 49 games and Derry City's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
32%
3.11
33%
3.07
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.06
1.06
Derry City xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Derry City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.06 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 26W 18D 28L from 72 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 32W 22D 18L across 72 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Bohemians against 1.64 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 14W 8D 14L from their last 36 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derry City's away record stands at 14W 10D 12L across their last 36 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.39 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
Bohemians (Home) vs Derry City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Bohemians vs Derry City Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.39 PPG; Derry City away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Derry City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 21 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won Derry City 4-1 Bohemians on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
3
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Derry City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 3, Derry City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Derry City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 August 2026: Bohemians 5-3 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 50%, Derry City 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bohemians) and 36% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Derry City in 39%; Derry City in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Derry City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Derry City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians's recent matches and 42% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and Derry City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bohemians's recent games and 36% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Derry City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Bohemians's recent matches and 61% of Derry City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Derry City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians and Derry City finished level at 1-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.00 xG and Derry City 1.06 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Derry City attack 0.90 / defence 0.79, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 32% | Draw 33% | Derry City 35%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.33 PPG, Derry City 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.