Volos NFC 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (41%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Volos NFC face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Aris Thessalonikis travel to Panthessaliko Stadium to take on Volos NFC in Super League 1 (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Volos NFC have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Volos NFC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Aris Thessalonikis are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Aris Thessalonikis have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for Volos NFC.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Volos NFC 0–2 Aris Thessalonikis — a Aris Thessalonikis win.
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 42% versus Aris Thessalonikis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 48% | Aris Thessalonikis 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.83 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.713 / defence 1.191 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.791 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.139. Volos NFC's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from Volos NFC's last 46 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 46.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 28% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 41%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.58 | Draw 3.18 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Volos NFC's last 10 home games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Volos NFC 40% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 21 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 28% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Volos NFC 0.83 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.713 / def 1.191 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.791 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Aris Thessalonikis xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis FAQs
What time does Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Volos NFC 1 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 21) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 28% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 0.71x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Volos NFC's last 46 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
28%
3.58
31%
3.18
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
1.91
1.07
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 15.9 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.07 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 18W 7D 27L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 22W 16D 14L from 52 games, 1.58 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.16 PPG from their last 25 home games (8W 5D 12L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 9W 5D 11L from their last 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.13 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Volos NFC (Home) vs Aris Thessalonikis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Volos NFC
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis Form FAQs
What form are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 18W 7D 27L in their last 52 games (1.17 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 16D 14L in their last 52 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.16 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Volos NFC
2
Draws
7
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Volos NFC have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Aris Thessalonikis 3-2 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 40%, Aris Thessalonikis 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Volos NFC) and 40% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 32%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 52% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Volos NFC's recent games and 40% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 72% of Aris Thessalonikis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 1-1 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.83 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.07 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.71 / defence 1.19 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.79 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 28% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 41%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, Aris Thessalonikis 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.