PAOK 1-4 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Toumbas this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in PAOK's favour (2.50 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — PAOK have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 43% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 57% | Olympiakos Piraeus 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.72 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.410 / defence 0.603 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.982 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.293. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PAOK's defence rating of 0.603 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 PAOK games / 48 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 59% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 15%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Olympiakos Piraeus 6.67. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 59% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG PAOK 1.72 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.410 / def 0.603 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.982 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: PAOK (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK 1 - 4 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 59% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
PAOK (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (0.98x) against PAOK's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
59%
1.70
26%
3.86
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.49
0.77
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
3%
36.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for PAOK and 0.77 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 35W 13D 10L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 35W 14D 9L from 58 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.03 PPG for PAOK against 2.05 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.24 PPG from 29 outings (20W 5D 4L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 15W 9D 5L from 29 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.03 scored and 0.74 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 35W 13D 10L in their last 58 games (2.03 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 35W 14D 9L in their last 58 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
PAOK's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.24 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.86 PPG.
Have PAOK or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
2
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 38%, Olympiakos Piraeus 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (PAOK) and 41% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of PAOK's recent matches and 38% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of PAOK's recent games and 41% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 1-4 hammering of PAOK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAOK 1-4 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.72 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.77 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 0.77 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.41 / defence 0.60 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.98 / defence 0.78, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 59% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 15%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Olympiakos Piraeus win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 57%, Olympiakos Piraeus 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 2.03 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.