Volos NFC 1-2 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadio plays host to Volos NFC versus PAS Giannina in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Volos NFC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Panthessaliko Stadio, Volos NFC have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PAS Giannina have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAS Giannina have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Volos NFC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, PAS Giannina in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Volos NFC, 1 for PAS Giannina and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Volos NFC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 44% versus PAS Giannina 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 58% | PAS Giannina 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.61 xG and PAS Giannina 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.809 / defence 1.348 | PAS Giannina attack 0.818 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.295. PAS Giannina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Volos NFC games / 48 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 26% | PAS Giannina 33%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | PAS Giannina 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 70% | PAS Giannina 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 26% | PAS Giannina 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Volos NFC 1.61 / PAS Giannina 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.809 / def 1.348 | PAS Giannina attack 0.818 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.43
PAS Giannina xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina?
Volos NFC 1 - 2 PAS Giannina.
Where is Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina part of?
Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 41% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Volos NFC and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAS Giannina?
Record (5 meetings): Volos NFC 2W | Draws 2 | PAS Giannina 1W.
What form are Volos NFC and PAS Giannina in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — PAS Giannina's attack (0.82x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.78
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.43
PAS Giannina xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.43 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 13W 13D 29L from 55 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 9W 20D 26L across 55 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Volos NFC against 0.85 for PAS Giannina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 7W 4D 16L from 27 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 2W 11D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Volos NFC are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.93 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 13W 13D 29L in their last 55 games (0.95 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 9W 20D 26L in their last 55 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or PAS Giannina away?
Volos NFC's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.93 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
3
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAS Giannina?
From 7 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when PAS Giannina 1-1 Volos NFC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 52%, PAS Giannina 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Volos NFC) and 48% (PAS Giannina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 37% of games; PAS Giannina in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play PAS Giannina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Volos NFC's games and 63% of PAS Giannina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Volos NFC's matches and 48% of PAS Giannina's.
Do Volos NFC and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAS Giannina defy the odds to beat Volos NFC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Volos NFC 1-2 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.61 xG and PAS Giannina 1.43 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.81 / defence 1.35 against PAS Giannina attack 0.82 / defence 1.27, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 41% | Draw 26% | PAS Giannina 33%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual PAS Giannina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 58%, PAS Giannina 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 0.95 PPG, PAS Giannina 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAS Giannina win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.