OFI 4-0 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
OFI host Panserraikos at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 19 February 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — OFI are significantly better at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panserraikos stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panserraikos have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Panserraikos's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of OFI's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for OFI, 1 for Panserraikos and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Panserraikos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Panserraikos in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus Panserraikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 41% | Panserraikos 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.28 xG and Panserraikos 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.716 / defence 0.969 | Panserraikos attack 0.827 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.326. OFI's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 OFI games / 22 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 40% | Draw 31% | Panserraikos 29%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Panserraikos 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Panserraikos (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 50% | Panserraikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Monday 19 Feb 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 40% | Draw 31% | Panserraikos 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG OFI 1.28 / Panserraikos 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.716 / def 0.969 | Panserraikos attack 0.827 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: OFI (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Panserraikos xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Panserraikos kick off?
OFI vs Panserraikos kicked off at 15:30 on Monday 19 February 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panserraikos?
OFI 4 - 0 Panserraikos.
Where is OFI vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Panserraikos part of?
OFI vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 40% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both OFI and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panserraikos?
Record (1 meetings): OFI 0W | Draws 0 | Panserraikos 1W.
What form are OFI and Panserraikos in?
OFI (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Panserraikos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.72) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
40%
2.49
31%
3.27
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
OFI xG
Total xG
2.35
1.06
Panserraikos xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are OFI and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for OFI and 1.06 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, OFI have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 4W 8D 10L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panserraikos's form line: 5W 8D 9L from 22 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 0.91 PPG, Panserraikos on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — OFI are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Panserraikos have gone 2W 3D 6L from 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.18 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 4W 8D 10L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 5W 8D 9L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panserraikos away?
OFI's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.45 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
OFI go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2024, when OFI won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
OFI
1
Draws
1
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panserraikos?
From 7 meetings on record, OFI have won 5, Panserraikos have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when OFI 3-0 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panserraikos?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 54%, Panserraikos 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for OFI and 36% for Panserraikos.
On the defensive side: Panserraikos in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of OFI's recent matches and 36% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of OFI's recent games and 36% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Panserraikos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OFI run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Panserraikos 4-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.28 xG and Panserraikos 1.06 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.72 / defence 0.97 against Panserraikos attack 0.83 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 40% | Draw 31% | Panserraikos 29%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 41%, Panserraikos 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Panserraikos's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 0.91 PPG, Panserraikos 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.