Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Asteras Tripolis make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Olympiakos Piraeus's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Asteras Tripolis's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Asteras Tripolis in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Olympiakos Piraeus, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Asteras Tripolis — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 45% versus Asteras Tripolis 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 55% | Asteras Tripolis 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.42 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.416 / defence 0.871 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.976 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.340. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.416 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 49 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 64% | Draw 21% | Asteras Tripolis 15%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Asteras Tripolis 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | Asteras Tripolis 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 64% | Draw 21% | Asteras Tripolis 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 63% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.42 / Asteras Tripolis 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.416 / def 0.871 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.976 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Asteras Tripolis xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 64% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (5 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 4W | Draws 1 | Asteras Tripolis 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.42x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.98x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
64%
1.55
21%
4.87
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.56
1.14
Asteras Tripolis xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
9%
11.25
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
1%
74.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.14 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 56 games, going 34W 13D 9L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.09 PPG from 56 outings (14W 19D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 18W 5D 4L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 0.70 points per game from 27 outings (4W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.96 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 34W 13D 9L in their last 56 games (2.05 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 14W 19D 23L in their last 56 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.19 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 on 28 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 48%, Asteras Tripolis 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 44% (Asteras Tripolis). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 41% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 44% of Asteras Tripolis's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Asteras Tripolis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.42 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.14 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.42 / defence 0.87 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 64% | Draw 21% | Asteras Tripolis 15%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 55%, Asteras Tripolis 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.