Panathinaikos 2-2 Lamia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panathinaikos vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Panathinaikos welcome Lamia to Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panathinaikos stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's home record at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Panathinaikos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Panathinaikos have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 5 past contests while Lamia have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Panathinaikos winning.
The historical record gives Panathinaikos a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Panathinaikos trading profile (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Lamia trading profile (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 34% versus Lamia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 40% | Lamia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 2.21 xG and Lamia 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.343 / defence 0.628 | Lamia attack 1.112 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.282. Panathinaikos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.628 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Panathinaikos games / 48 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 66% | Draw 21% | Lamia 13%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Lamia 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Panathinaikos 30% | Lamia 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 66% | Draw 21% | Lamia 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Panathinaikos 2.21 / Lamia 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.343 / def 0.628 | Lamia attack 1.112 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Lamia xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Panathinaikos 2 - 2 Lamia.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Lamia part of?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 66% chance of winning, Lamia a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Panathinaikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Record (5 meetings): Panathinaikos 5W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Lamia in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Lamia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panathinaikos's attack at 1.34x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
66%
1.51
21%
4.81
13%
7.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
3.10
0.90
Lamia xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
7.73
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
11%
9.11
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
1%
70.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.90 for Lamia, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 35W 12D 8L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia's form line: 14W 20D 21L from 55 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.23 PPG from 26 outings (17W 7D 2L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 12D 10L from 26 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.98 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 35W 12D 8L in their last 55 games (2.13 PPG), while Lamia have gone 14W 20D 21L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Lamia away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.23 PPG; Lamia away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Lamia in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Panathinaikos won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 8, Lamia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Lamia 3-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panathinaikos see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 31%, Lamia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Panathinaikos) and 50% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Lamia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 46% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 50% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Panathinaikos and Lamia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos and Lamia finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 2.21 xG and Lamia 0.90 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lamia outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.34 / defence 0.63 against Lamia attack 1.11 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 66% | Draw 21% | Lamia 13%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 40%, Lamia 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamia's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.