PAOK 2-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (77%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as PAOK face Asteras Tripolis.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, PAOK have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — PAOK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Asteras Tripolis's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 1.60 PPG lead over Asteras Tripolis (2.10 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours PAOK, who have won 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against Asteras Tripolis — Asteras Tripolis have 0 wins, with 3 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended PAOK 3–3 Asteras Tripolis — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both PAOK and goals — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 53% versus Asteras Tripolis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 64% | Asteras Tripolis 49%). Note also that Asteras Tripolis surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while PAOK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.23 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.281 / defence 0.636 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.729 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.096. PAOK carry an above-average attack rating of 1.281 — their 2.23 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Asteras Tripolis's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAOK's projected output up. Asteras Tripolis's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.51. PAOK have a tight defence (rating 0.636), which is pulling Asteras Tripolis's projected output down. Data: built from PAOK's last 47 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 48.
Result probabilities: PAOK 77% | Draw 17% | Asteras Tripolis 7%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.30 | Draw 6.04 | Asteras Tripolis 14.88. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (77%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 77% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAOK 30% (last 10 home games) | Asteras Tripolis 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 77% | Draw 17% | Asteras Tripolis 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG PAOK 2.23 / Asteras Tripolis 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.281 / def 0.636 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.729 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: PAOK (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Asteras Tripolis xG
36%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis FAQs
What time does PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
PAOK 2 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 77% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 7% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both PAOK and Asteras Tripolis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.28x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.73x) against PAOK's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.51.
These ratings are built from PAOK's last 47 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 3-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
77%
1.30
17%
6.04
7%
14.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
3 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.74
0.51
Asteras Tripolis xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.04
17%
Draw
14.88
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
60%
1.66
11%
9.32
Win to Nil
46%
2.17
1%
138.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.1 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for PAOK and 0.51 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 32W 9D 12L from 53 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 26L across 53 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Asteras Tripolis heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 17W 4D 5L from their last 26 home games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 6W 6D 14L across their last 26 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
PAOK (Home) vs Asteras Tripolis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAOK
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis Form FAQs
What form are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 32W 9D 12L in their last 53 games (1.98 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 15W 12D 26L in their last 53 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
PAOK's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.12 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.92 PPG.
Have PAOK or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
PAOK have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won PAOK 3-0 Asteras Tripolis on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 5W 1D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PAOK
3
Draws
0
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAOK have won 7, Asteras Tripolis have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: PAOK 2-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 38%, Asteras Tripolis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (PAOK) and 46% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAOK and Asteras Tripolis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of PAOK's recent matches and 50% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of PAOK's recent games and 46% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Asteras Tripolis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of PAOK's recent matches and 62% of Asteras Tripolis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Asteras Tripolis 2-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.23 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.51 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.28 / defence 0.64 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.73 / defence 1.25, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 77% | Draw 17% | Asteras Tripolis 7%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 64%, Asteras Tripolis 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.