PAOK 0-0 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus AEK Athens FC in Super League 1 (matchday 21). Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
PAOK (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
PAOK's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — PAOK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
AEK Athens FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for PAOK against 2.60 for AEK Athens FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours PAOK, who have won 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against AEK Athens FC — AEK Athens FC have 1 win, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended PAOK 2–0 AEK Athens FC — a PAOK win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both PAOK and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.1 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 53% versus AEK Athens FC 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 67% | AEK Athens FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.39 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.412 / defence 0.712 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.438 / defence 0.719. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.150. PAOK carry an above-average attack rating of 1.412 — their 1.39 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.719, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling PAOK's projected output down. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.438, which lifts their away xG to 1.18. PAOK have a tight defence (rating 0.712), which is pulling AEK Athens FC's projected output down. Data: built from PAOK's last 45 games and AEK Athens FC's last 46.
Result probabilities: PAOK 42% | Draw 26% | AEK Athens FC 32%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.40 | Draw 3.78 | AEK Athens FC 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (PAOK 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: PAOK 30% (last 10 home games) | AEK Athens FC 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 21 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 42% | Draw 26% | AEK Athens FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG PAOK 1.39 / AEK Athens FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.412 / def 0.712 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.438 / def 0.719 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: PAOK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.18
AEK Athens FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAOK vs AEK Athens FC FAQs
What time does PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
What was the final score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
PAOK 0 - 0 AEK Athens FC.
Where is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC part of?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 21) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 42% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PAOK and AEK Athens FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PAOK vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.41x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.44x) against PAOK's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from PAOK's last 45 games and AEK Athens FC's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.78
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.56
1.18
AEK Athens FC xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAOK vs AEK Athens FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are PAOK and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for PAOK and 1.18 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 32W 7D 12L from 51 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
AEK Athens FC, meanwhile, have gone 30W 8D 13L across 51 games — 1.92 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.02 PPG for PAOK against 1.92 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 18W 3D 5L from their last 26 home games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AEK Athens FC's away record stands at 14W 4D 8L across their last 26 away games, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.61 scored and 0.80 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against AEK Athens FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
PAOK (Home) vs AEK Athens FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAOK
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ PAOK vs AEK Athens FC Form FAQs
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 32W 7D 12L in their last 51 games (2.02 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 30W 8D 13L in their last 51 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or AEK Athens FC away?
PAOK's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.19 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.77 PPG.
Have PAOK or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 13 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won AEK Athens FC 3-0 PAOK on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
4
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ PAOK vs AEK Athens FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAOK have won 4, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2026: PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 42%, AEK Athens FC 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (PAOK) and 42% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 42%; AEK Athens FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAOK vs AEK Athens FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAOK and AEK Athens FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of PAOK's recent matches and 35% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAOK and AEK Athens FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of PAOK's recent games and 42% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and AEK Athens FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of PAOK's recent matches and 62% of AEK Athens FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAOK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK and AEK Athens FC finished level at 0-0 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.39 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAOK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.41 / defence 0.71 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.44 / defence 0.72, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 42% | Draw 26% | AEK Athens FC 32%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 67%, AEK Athens FC 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 2.02 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.