PAOK 1-2 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
PAOK (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's home record at Stadio Toumbas: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 0.50 PPG clear of PAOK in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 57% versus AEK Athens FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 66% | AEK Athens FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.34 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.131 / defence 1.050 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.069 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.095. Data: 46 PAOK games / 46 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 39% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 34%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | AEK Athens FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AEK Athens FC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: PAOK 50% | AEK Athens FC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 39% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG PAOK 1.34 / AEK Athens FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.131 / def 1.050 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.069 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: PAOK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.23
AEK Athens FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
PAOK 1 - 2 AEK Athens FC.
Where is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC part of?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 39% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PAOK and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
Record (3 meetings): PAOK 1W | Draws 2 | AEK Athens FC 0W.
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.13x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.07x) against PAOK's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.77
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.57
1.23
AEK Athens FC xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are PAOK and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for PAOK and 1.23 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 36W 9D 11L from 56 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC, meanwhile, have gone 35W 13D 8L across 56 games — 2.11 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.09 PPG for PAOK against 2.11 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 18W 4D 6L from 28 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AEK Athens FC's away record stands at 14W 6D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.86 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against AEK Athens FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 36W 9D 11L in their last 56 games (2.09 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 35W 13D 8L in their last 56 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or AEK Athens FC away?
PAOK's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.07 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have PAOK or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 3-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
4
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 46%, AEK Athens FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for PAOK and 61% for AEK Athens FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of PAOK's recent matches and 54% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of PAOK's matches and 61% of AEK Athens FC's.
Do PAOK and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AEK Athens FC defy the odds to beat PAOK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat PAOK 1-2 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.34 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.13 / defence 1.05 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 39% | Draw 27% | AEK Athens FC 34%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual AEK Athens FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 66%, AEK Athens FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 2.09 PPG, AEK Athens FC 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.