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Poisson rates PAOK at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Levadiakos encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

PAOK (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PAOK's home record at Stadio Toumbas: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Levadiakos have posted 1W 5D 3L from 9 away outings — 0.89 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 0.50 PPG lead over Levadiakos (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — PAOK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Levadiakos in 78%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: PAOK 2W, Levadiakos 0W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with PAOK winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PAOK 63% and Levadiakos 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 63% | Levadiakos 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.54 xG and Levadiakos 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.167 / defence 1.162 | Levadiakos attack 1.034 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.113. Data: 45 PAOK games / 19 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAOK 42% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 33%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Levadiakos 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 60% | Levadiakos 78% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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