PAOK 1-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
PAOK (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's home record at Stadio Toumbas: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Levadiakos have posted 1W 5D 3L from 9 away outings — 0.89 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 0.50 PPG lead over Levadiakos (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — PAOK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Levadiakos in 78%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: PAOK 2W, Levadiakos 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PAOK 63% and Levadiakos 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 63% | Levadiakos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.54 xG and Levadiakos 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.167 / defence 1.162 | Levadiakos attack 1.034 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.113. Data: 45 PAOK games / 19 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 42% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 33%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Levadiakos 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 60% | Levadiakos 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 42% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG PAOK 1.54 / Levadiakos 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.167 / def 1.162 | Levadiakos attack 1.034 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: PAOK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Levadiakos xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Levadiakos kick off?
PAOK vs Levadiakos kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Levadiakos?
PAOK 1 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is PAOK vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Levadiakos part of?
PAOK vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 42% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both PAOK and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Levadiakos?
Record (3 meetings): PAOK 2W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are PAOK and Levadiakos in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.17x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (1.03x) against PAOK's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 45/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
42%
2.37
25%
4.04
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.88
1.34
Levadiakos xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are PAOK and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for PAOK and 1.34 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAOK come into this having played 19 games, going 10W 4D 5L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (3W 9D 7L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
PAOK's home form reads 3W 2D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.79 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (1W 5D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.11 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAOK have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Levadiakos in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 10W 4D 5L in their last 19 games (1.79 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 3W 9D 7L in their last 19 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Levadiakos away?
PAOK's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 1.22 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.89 PPG.
Have PAOK or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
PAOK go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 4-0 on 23 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
PAOK
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, PAOK have won 6, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when PAOK 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Levadiakos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for PAOK, 78% for Levadiakos — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for PAOK and 56% for Levadiakos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of PAOK's games and 78% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAOK vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of PAOK's matches and 56% of Levadiakos's.
Do PAOK and Levadiakos tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Levadiakos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Levadiakos 1-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.54 xG and Levadiakos 1.34 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Levadiakos landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against Levadiakos attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 45/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 42% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 33%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 63%, Levadiakos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Levadiakos's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.