Panathinaikos 3-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panathinaikos face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Panathinaikos host OFI at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Panathinaikos — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, OFI have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Panathinaikos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Panathinaikos have won 3, OFI 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Panathinaikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
OFI in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 49% versus OFI 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 53% | OFI 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.17 xG and OFI 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.000 / defence 0.697 | OFI attack 0.959 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.095. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Panathinaikos games / 46 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 31% | OFI 23%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | OFI 4.35. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panathinaikos at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 40% | OFI 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 31% | OFI 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Panathinaikos 1.17 / OFI 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.000 / def 0.697 | OFI attack 0.959 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.73
OFI xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs OFI kick off?
Panathinaikos vs OFI kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Panathinaikos 3 - 2 OFI.
Where is Panathinaikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs OFI part of?
Panathinaikos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 46% chance of winning, OFI a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Panathinaikos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and OFI?
Record (7 meetings): Panathinaikos 3W | Draws 3 | OFI 1W.
What form are Panathinaikos and OFI in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. OFI (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.00) and OFI's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.26
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
1.91
0.73
OFI xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
7%
14.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.73 for OFI, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panathinaikos's recent record stands at 29W 14D 10L from 53 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 14W 20D 19L across 53 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panathinaikos by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Panathinaikos have managed 16W 7D 3L from 26 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 4W 11D 11L across 26 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.19 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 29W 14D 10L in their last 53 games (1.91 PPG), while OFI have gone 14W 20D 19L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or OFI away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.12 PPG; OFI away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, OFI in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Panathinaikos go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Panathinaikos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
1
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 6, OFI have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 4-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and OFI?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 46%, OFI 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Panathinaikos) and 58% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; OFI in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 50% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 58% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and OFI tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, OFI in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out OFI 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat OFI 3-2 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.17 xG and OFI 0.73 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OFI outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.00 / defence 0.70 against OFI attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 46% | Draw 31% | OFI 23%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 53%, OFI 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
OFI's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.