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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Levadiakos face Olympiakos Piraeus.

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Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Current Form

Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Levadiakos have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadio Levadias — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Olympiakos Piraeus arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Levadiakos, 2 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 60% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 45% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.80 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.825 / defence 1.210 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.223 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.110. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Levadiakos games / 46 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 18% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 57%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.

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