Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to take on Asteras Tripolis. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 February 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's home record at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lamia — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Asteras Tripolis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 4 for Lamia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lamia in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 51% versus Lamia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 53% | Lamia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.46 xG and Lamia 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.096 / defence 0.815 | Lamia attack 0.728 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.103. Data: 46 Asteras Tripolis games / 46 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 57% | Draw 27% | Lamia 17%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Lamia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Asteras Tripolis (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Lamia lead the H2H ledger, but Asteras Tripolis carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 40% | Lamia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Monday 3 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 57% | Draw 27% | Lamia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 37% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.46 / Lamia 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.096 / def 0.815 | Lamia attack 0.728 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Lamia xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 3 February 2025 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 57% chance of winning, Lamia a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
Record (9 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 2W | Draws 3 | Lamia 4W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Lamia (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 1.10x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
57%
1.77
27%
3.75
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.11
0.66
Lamia xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
4%
25.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.5 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.66 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 53 games, going 20W 9D 24L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.75 PPG from 53 outings (9W 13D 31L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Asteras Tripolis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 9W 5D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.73 points per game from 26 outings (4W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.94 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Lamia in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 20W 9D 24L in their last 53 games (1.30 PPG), while Lamia have gone 9W 13D 31L in their last 53 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Lamia away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.23 PPG; Lamia away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2023, when Asteras Tripolis won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
4
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 3, Lamia have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 50%, Lamia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Asteras Tripolis) and 58% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 27% of games; Lamia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 58% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 58% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Lamia tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Lamia in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Asteras Tripolis edge out Lamia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Lamia 1-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.46 xG and Lamia 0.66 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.10 / defence 0.81 against Lamia attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 57% | Draw 27% | Lamia 17%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 53%, Lamia 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamia's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Asteras Tripolis arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.