Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium in Super League 1 (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Panathinaikos's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Aris Thessalonikis's record over their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Panathinaikos. A 0.60 PPG lead over Aris Thessalonikis (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Panathinaikos, 3 for Aris Thessalonikis and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Panathinaikos 1–1 Aris Thessalonikis — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 51% versus Aris Thessalonikis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panathinaikos 43% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%). Note also that Aris Thessalonikis surrender HT leads in 37% of cases while Panathinaikos recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.40 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.159 / defence 0.867 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.821 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.090. Data: built from Panathinaikos's last 47 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 48.
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 51% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.95 | Draw 3.55 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.88. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Panathinaikos 60% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 51% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Panathinaikos 1.40 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.159 / def 0.867 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.821 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Aris Thessalonikis xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis FAQs
What time does Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos 3 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 51% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.16) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.82x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from Panathinaikos's last 47 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.55
21%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.17
0.78
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.88
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
5%
19.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.78 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 27W 14D 12L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 22W 17D 14L from 53 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.57 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.19 PPG from their last 26 home games (17W 6D 3L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 9W 6D 11L from their last 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.13 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Panathinaikos (Home) vs Aris Thessalonikis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panathinaikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis Form FAQs
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 27W 14D 12L in their last 53 games (1.79 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 17D 14L in their last 53 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.19 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panathinaikos have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 54%, Aris Thessalonikis 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Panathinaikos) and 38% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 54% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 73% of Aris Thessalonikis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.40 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.78 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.16 / defence 0.87 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.82 / defence 0.86, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 51% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 43%, Aris Thessalonikis 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.79 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.