OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 37%, yet in-form Olympiakos Piraeus provide a compelling counter-argument — this OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Pankritio Stadium to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 6W 1D 3L at Pankritio Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — OFI are significantly better at Pankritio Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 9 wins from 10 previous contests against 1 for OFI.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with OFI winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 9 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 67% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.16 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.101 / defence 0.952 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.025 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 OFI games / 32 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 37% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 27%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Olympiakos Piraeus (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 37% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG OFI 1.16 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.101 / def 0.952 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.025 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: OFI (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 37% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (10 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 9W.
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.10) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
37%
2.68
36%
2.78
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
OFI xG
Total xG
2.11
0.95
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for OFI and 0.95 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, OFI have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 15W 4D 20L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 24W 10D 5L from 39 games, 2.10 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (10W 1D 8L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 11W 6D 2L from 19 away games — 2.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.49 scored and 0.49 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 15W 4D 20L in their last 39 games (1.26 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 24W 10D 5L in their last 39 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.63 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.05 PPG.
Have OFI or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OFI
0
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 32%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (OFI) and 32% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 58%; OFI have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of OFI's recent matches and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of OFI's recent games and 32% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.