🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

PAOK make the trip to Levadia Stadium to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Levadiakos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.

PAOK have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAOK haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

PAOK's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 6 meetings, PAOK have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Levadiakos's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–3 with PAOK winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAOK have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Levadiakos — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

PAOK — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 56% versus PAOK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 66% | PAOK 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.40 xG and PAOK 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.095 / defence 1.023 | PAOK attack 1.096 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 Levadiakos games / 26 PAOK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 39% | Draw 30% | PAOK 30%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | PAOK 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 70% | PAOK 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights