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Poisson rates PAOK at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs OFI encounter.

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Match Analysis

PAOK host OFI at Toumba Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

PAOK — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 7W 3D 0L at Toumba Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

OFI away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAOK 1.40 PPG, OFI 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: PAOK have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while OFI have managed just 2 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 3–0 with PAOK winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

PAOK in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

OFI in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 44% versus OFI 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 56% | OFI 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.69 xG and OFI 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.134 / defence 0.864 | OFI attack 1.033 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 PAOK games / 26 OFI games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: PAOK 53% | Draw 28% | OFI 19%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | OFI 5.26. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 40% | OFI 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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