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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Aris Thessalonikis host Kalamata at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.37 xG and Kalamata 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.880 / defence 0.968 | Kalamata attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 Aris Thessalonikis games / 0 Kalamata games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 46% | Draw 32% | Kalamata 22%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Kalamata 4.55. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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