Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis host Kalamata at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this season.
Kalamata — All Games: 0W 0D 2L from 2 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Aris Thessalonikis, 0 for Kalamata and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 3–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.68 xG and Kalamata 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.981 / defence 0.986 | Kalamata attack 0.718 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Data: 28 Aris Thessalonikis games / 2 Kalamata games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 59% | Draw 27% | Kalamata 14%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Kalamata 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 59% | Draw 27% | Kalamata 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.68 / Kalamata 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.981 / def 0.986 | Kalamata attack 0.718 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Kalamata xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 59% chance of winning, Kalamata a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata?
Record (1 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 1W | Draws 0 | Kalamata 0W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Kalamata (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 0.98x the league average against Kalamata's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalamata's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.66
14%
7.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.39
0.71
Kalamata xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
7.33
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
3%
39.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.71 for Kalamata, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kalamata's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalamata.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Kalamata are on 1.00 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Kalamata
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Kalamata have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Aris Thessalonikis
0
Draws
0
Kalamata
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata?
From 1 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 1, Kalamata have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Kalamata 2-3 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Kalamata away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Kalamata?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 50% of Kalamata's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Kalamata usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Aris Thessalonikis's matches and 50% of Kalamata's.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Kalamata tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kalamata in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.