Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Kifisia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Kifisia travel to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this season.
Kifisia — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kifisia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Kifisia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Olympiakos Piraeus have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Kifisia have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Kifisia in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 31% versus Kifisia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 28% | Kifisia 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.28 xG and Kifisia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.797 / defence 0.750 | Kifisia attack 0.988 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.065. Olympiakos Piraeus's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 33 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 45% | Draw 34% | Kifisia 20%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Kifisia 5.00. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 10% | Kifisia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 45% | Draw 34% | Kifisia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.28 / Kifisia 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.797 / def 0.750 | Kifisia attack 0.988 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Kifisia xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 45% chance of winning, Kifisia a 20% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia?
Record (4 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 3W | Draws 1 | Kifisia 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Kifisia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 0.80x the league average against Kifisia's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
45%
2.21
34%
2.91
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.07
0.79
Kifisia xG
2.21
45%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.79 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 39 games, going 24W 10D 5L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kifisia sit at 1.15 PPG from 39 outings (10W 15D 14L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kifisia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Kifisia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 12W 4D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Kifisia have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.49 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.05 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Kifisia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 24W 10D 5L in their last 39 games (2.10 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 10W 15D 14L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Kifisia away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.11 PPG; Kifisia away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Kifisia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Kifisia in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Kifisia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
Draws
0
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia?
From 4 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3, Kifisia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 21%, Kifisia 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 58% (Kifisia).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus have failed to score in 26% of games; Kifisia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Kifisia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 63% of Kifisia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 58% of Kifisia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Kifisia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.