OFI 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 41% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Pankritio Stadium to take on OFI in Super League 1 (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, OFI have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, OFI have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (OFI) versus 1.90 (Olympiakos Piraeus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better record in our head-to-head data — 8 wins from 8 H2H matches against 0 for OFI.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended OFI 0–3 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 8 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 50% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 64% | Olympiakos Piraeus 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.97 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.178 / defence 0.966 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.126 / defence 0.610. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.119. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.610, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling OFI's projected output down. Data: built from OFI's last 50 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 50.
Result probabilities: OFI 29% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.46 | Draw 3.34 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Olympiakos Piraeus 8 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 20% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 29% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG OFI 0.97 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.178 / def 0.966 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.126 / def 0.610 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus FAQs
What time does OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
What was the final score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
OFI 0 - 3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 25) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 29% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.18) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.61), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 50 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
29%
3.46
30%
3.34
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
OFI xG
Total xG
2.19
1.22
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.6 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for OFI and 1.22 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, OFI have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 19W 10D 27L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 39W 12D 5L from 56 games, 2.30 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 28 home games (11W 4D 13L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 18W 6D 4L from their last 28 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.79 scored and 0.59 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Olympiakos Piraeus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 19W 10D 27L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 39W 12D 5L in their last 56 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.32 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.14 PPG.
Have OFI or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won Olympiakos Piraeus 4-0 OFI.
OFI's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OFI
0
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 46%, Olympiakos Piraeus 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (OFI) and 36% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 61%; OFI have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of OFI's recent matches and 36% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of OFI's recent games and 36% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of OFI's recent matches and 54% of Olympiakos Piraeus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 0-3 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat OFI 0-3 at Pankritio Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 0.97 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. OFI fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.18 / defence 0.97 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.13 / defence 0.61, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 29% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 64%, Olympiakos Piraeus 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.