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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees OFI travel to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 1W 9D 0L across 10 games at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

OFI — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.

OFI away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 PPG, OFI 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Aris Thessalonikis register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, OFI in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 4 for OFI and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with OFI winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).

OFI in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 49% versus OFI 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 32% | OFI 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.41 xG and OFI 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.753 / defence 0.780 | OFI attack 1.006 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.097. Aris Thessalonikis's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Aris Thessalonikis games / 51 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 48% | Draw 31% | OFI 21%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | OFI 4.76. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | OFI 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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