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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larisa encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus and Larisa meet at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 2D 1L at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Larisa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Larisa have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Olympiakos Piraeus's favour (2.10 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Olympiakos Piraeus 1W, Larisa 0W, 0D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.

Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 32% versus Larisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Larisa 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.52 xG and Larisa 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.045 / defence 0.643 | Larisa attack 0.745 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.097. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.643 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 25 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 28% | Larisa 11%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 | Draw 3.57 | Larisa 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Larisa's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 30% | Larisa 40% BTTS from recent games.

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