🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Panserraikos have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Panserraikos have posted 3W 0D 7L at Dimotiko Stadio Serron — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Panserraikos against 1.20 for Aris Thessalonikis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Across the last 5 meetings, Aris Thessalonikis have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Panserraikos's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Aris Thessalonikis have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Panserraikos — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 50% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 61% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.06 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.797 / defence 1.404 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.833 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.138. Panserraikos's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Panserraikos games / 50 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Panserraikos 29% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 42%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panserraikos 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights