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Poisson model favours PAOK (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face Levadiakos.

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Full Analysis

Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

PAOK (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PAOK's home record at Toumba Stadium: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Levadiakos have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 0.80 PPG lead over Levadiakos (2.20 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Across 5 previous meetings, PAOK are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 3–2 with PAOK winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 52% versus Levadiakos 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 62% | Levadiakos 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.11 xG and Levadiakos 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.284 / defence 0.614 | Levadiakos attack 1.120 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.111. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PAOK's defence rating of 0.614 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 PAOK games / 50 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAOK 68% | Draw 21% | Levadiakos 11%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | Levadiakos 9.09. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | Levadiakos 60% BTTS from recent games.

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