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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Pankritio Stadium to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 6W 0D 4L at Pankritio Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pankritio Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (OFI) versus 1.90 (Olympiakos Piraeus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 9 wins from 9 previous contests against 0 for OFI.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–3 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 9 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

OFI in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 50% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 64% | Olympiakos Piraeus 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.97 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.178 / defence 0.966 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.126 / defence 0.610. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.119. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.610 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 OFI games / 50 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: OFI 29% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 41%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 20% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.

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