OFI 3-0 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OFI face Larisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
OFI host Larisa at Pankritio Stadium in Super League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
OFI — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, OFI have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Larisa have recorded 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Larisa have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — OFI at 1.60 PPG versus Larisa's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for OFI, 0 for Larisa and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2025, ended OFI 2–1 Larisa — a OFI win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Larisa in-play and half-time data (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 41% versus Larisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 73% | Larisa 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.53 xG and Larisa 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.067 / defence 1.039 | Larisa attack 0.870 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.136. Data: built from OFI's last 47 games and Larisa's last 22.
Result probabilities: OFI 47% | Draw 28% | Larisa 24%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.11 | Draw 3.52 | Larisa 4.14. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: OFI 30% (last 10 home games) | Larisa 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 47% | Draw 28% | Larisa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG OFI 1.53 / Larisa 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.067 / def 1.039 | Larisa attack 0.870 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: OFI (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Larisa xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Larisa FAQs
What time does OFI vs Larisa kick off?
OFI vs Larisa kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
What was the final score in OFI vs Larisa?
OFI 3 - 0 Larisa.
Where is OFI vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Larisa part of?
OFI vs Larisa is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 47% chance of winning, Larisa a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both OFI and Larisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OFI vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates OFI's attack at 1.07x the league average against Larisa's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Larisa's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 47 games and Larisa's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.52
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
OFI xG
Total xG
2.55
1.03
Larisa xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
5%
19.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Larisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are OFI and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for OFI and 1.03 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OFI's recent record stands at 8W 2D 12L from 22 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Larisa, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 9L across 22 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.18 PPG, Larisa on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OFI have managed 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Larisa's away record stands at 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.95 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Larisa
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Larisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Larisa
Blended
❓ OFI vs Larisa Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Larisa in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 8W 2D 12L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while Larisa have gone 4W 9D 9L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Larisa away?
OFI's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.50 PPG; Larisa away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2025. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
OFI
0
Draws
0
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Larisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Larisa?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 2, Larisa have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Larisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: OFI 3-0 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Larisa?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 30%, Larisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (OFI) and 40% (Larisa).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; OFI have failed to score in 30% of games; Larisa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Larisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Larisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of OFI's recent matches and 50% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and Larisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of OFI's recent games and 40% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Larisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of OFI's recent matches and 70% of Larisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OFI run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Larisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Larisa 3-0 at Pankritio Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.53 xG and Larisa 1.03 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Larisa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Larisa attack 0.87 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 47% | Draw 28% | Larisa 24%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 73%, Larisa 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Larisa's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.18 PPG, Larisa 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.