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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs Larisa encounter.

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Full Analysis

Allwyn Arena plays host to AEK Athens FC versus Larisa in Super League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

AEK Athens FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Allwyn Arena this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Larisa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Larisa away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in AEK Athens FC's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: AEK Athens FC 0W, Larisa 0W, 1D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 35% versus Larisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AEK Athens FC 39% | Larisa 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.20 xG and Larisa 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.385 / defence 0.700 | Larisa attack 0.790 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.111. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.700 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 AEK Athens FC games / 23 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | Larisa 9%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.35 | Draw 5.56 | Larisa 11.11. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 30% | Larisa 50% BTTS from recent games.

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