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Poisson model rates OFI at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Iraklis 1908 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as OFI welcome Iraklis 1908 to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 7W 0D 3L at Pankritio Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pankritio Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — OFI are significantly better at Pankritio Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.61 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.036 / defence 1.038 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 OFI games / 0 Iraklis 1908 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: OFI 51% | Draw 29% | Iraklis 1908 20%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Iraklis 1908 5.00. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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