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Poisson model rates Kalamata at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalamata vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Levadiakos travel to Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium to take on Kalamata. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Levadiakos — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Levadiakos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Levadiakos have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kalamata 1.27 xG and Levadiakos 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalamata attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Levadiakos attack 1.023 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Kalamata games / 26 Levadiakos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Kalamata 35% | Draw 31% | Levadiakos 34%. Fair-value odds: Kalamata 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Levadiakos 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Kalamata are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalamata offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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