Kalamata vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalamata at 48%, yet in-form Levadiakos provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kalamata vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Levadiakos travel to Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium to take on Kalamata. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kalamata have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Levadiakos have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Levadiakos's 1.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Kalamata's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalamata 1.79 xG and Levadiakos 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalamata attack 0.957 / defence 1.394 | Levadiakos attack 0.912 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Kalamata's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Kalamata games / 28 Levadiakos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kalamata 48% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 25%. Fair-value odds: Kalamata 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Levadiakos 4.00. Kalamata hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalamata are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levadiakos (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalamata offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalamata vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalamata 48% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Kalamata 1.79 / Levadiakos 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Kalamata attack 0.957 / def 1.394 | Levadiakos attack 0.912 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Kalamata (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Kalamata xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Levadiakos xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalamata vs Levadiakos kick off?
Kalamata vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
Where is Kalamata vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
What competition is Kalamata vs Levadiakos part of?
Kalamata vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kalamata vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Kalamata a 48% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kalamata the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalamata vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kalamata and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Kalamata vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalamata and Levadiakos in?
Kalamata (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kalamata's attack at 0.96x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Kalamata's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalamata Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.77
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Kalamata xG
Total xG
3.06
1.27
Levadiakos xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
4%
23.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalamata vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Kalamata and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Kalamata and 1.27 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalamata vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Kalamata have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalamata on 0.00 PPG, Levadiakos on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Kalamata are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos in 0%.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalamata
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalamata and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Kalamata have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalamata home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalamata play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kalamata's recent matches and 0% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalamata vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kalamata's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalamata and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Kalamata have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.