Kalamata vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalamata at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalamata vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Levadiakos travel to Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium to take on Kalamata. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 December 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kalamata have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 outings — a 1.17 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kalamata's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 games at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Levadiakos — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Levadiakos have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.17 PPG (Kalamata) versus 0.80 (Levadiakos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Kalamata in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Kalamata 67% | Levadiakos 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kalamata 50% | Levadiakos 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalamata 1.56 xG and Levadiakos 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalamata attack 0.932 / defence 1.297 | Levadiakos attack 0.725 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Data: 6 Kalamata games / 33 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalamata 50% | Draw 31% | Levadiakos 19%. Fair-value odds: Kalamata 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Levadiakos 5.26. Kalamata hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalamata are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalamata offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Kalamata 67% | Levadiakos 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalamata vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalamata 50% | Draw 31% | Levadiakos 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Kalamata 1.56 / Levadiakos 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Kalamata attack 0.932 / def 1.297 | Levadiakos attack 0.725 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Kalamata (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Kalamata xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Levadiakos xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalamata vs Levadiakos kick off?
Kalamata vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
Where is Kalamata vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
What competition is Kalamata vs Levadiakos part of?
Kalamata vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kalamata vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Kalamata a 50% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kalamata the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalamata vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kalamata and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Kalamata vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalamata and Levadiakos in?
Kalamata (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kalamata's attack at 0.93x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Kalamata's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalamata Win
50%
2.02
31%
3.22
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Kalamata xG
Total xG
2.48
0.92
Levadiakos xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
4%
24.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalamata vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Kalamata and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Kalamata and 0.92 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalamata vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Kalamata have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 2W 1D 3L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos's form line: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Kalamata are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
Goals in Recent Form
Kalamata are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalamata have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Levadiakos in 0%.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalamata
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalamata and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Kalamata have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 (0.33 PPG).
Have Kalamata or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalamata have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Levadiakos tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Kalamata 67% BTTS, Levadiakos 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Kalamata and 0% for Levadiakos.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos in 33%; Kalamata have failed to score in 33% of games; Levadiakos in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalamata home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalamata play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Kalamata's recent matches and 0% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalamata vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kalamata's recent games and 0% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalamata and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Kalamata have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 17% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.