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Poisson model favours PAOK (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Volos NFC travel to Toumba Stadium to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
PAOK's home record at Toumba Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Volos NFC haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Volos NFC's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, PAOK have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
PAOK hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 8 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Volos NFC, with 0 draws in between.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Volos NFC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 44% versus Volos NFC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 56% | Volos NFC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.63 xG and Volos NFC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.134 / defence 0.864 | Volos NFC attack 0.936 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 PAOK games / 26 Volos NFC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PAOK 53% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 18%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Volos NFC 5.56. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 40% | Volos NFC 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): PAOK 8W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 2W • Goals trend: 3.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: PAOK 27 – 8 Volos NFC • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 80% | Win rates: PAOK 80% / Draw 0% / Volos NFC 20% • Historical edge: PAOK dominant — 8W from 10 meetings (80% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — PAOK favoured. H2H win rate 80%, Poisson win probability 53% • Goals: H2H average 3.50/game (80% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.49 (45% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 48% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • PAOK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D • Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L • PAOK home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | CS 6 • Volos NFC away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | CS 1 • Form edge: PAOK lead by 0.80 PPG (1.40 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (PAOK): Poisson projects 1.63 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.10 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Volos NFC): Poisson xG of 0.87 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.90 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.49 (45% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 48% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on PAOK — PAOK at 53% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 53% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG PAOK 1.63 / Volos NFC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.134 / def 0.864 | Volos NFC attack 0.936 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: PAOK (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Volos NFC xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Volos NFC kick off?
PAOK vs Volos NFC is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
Where is PAOK vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Volos NFC part of?
PAOK vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 53% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both PAOK and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
• Record (10 meetings): PAOK 8W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 2W • Goals trend: 3.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: PAOK 27 – 8 Volos NFC • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 80% | Win rates: PAOK 80% / Draw 0% / Volos NFC 20% • Historical edge: PAOK dominant — 8W from 10 meetings (80% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — PAOK favoured. H2H win rate 80%, Poisson win probability 53% • Goals: H2H average 3.50/game (80% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.49 (45% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 48% — no strong aligned signal
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • PAOK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D • Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L • PAOK home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | CS 6 • Volos NFC away split: 0.30 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | CS 1 • Form edge: PAOK lead by 0.80 PPG (1.40 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (PAOK): Poisson projects 1.63 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.10 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Volos NFC): Poisson xG of 0.87 aligns with form scoring rate of 0.90 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.49 (45% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 48% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on PAOK — PAOK at 53% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about PAOK vs Volos NFC?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture