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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Iraklis 1908 vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Iraklis 1908 and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Kaftanzoglio Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 1.12 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.934 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Iraklis 1908 games / 26 Aris Thessalonikis games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 33% | Draw 33% | Aris Thessalonikis 34%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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