OFI 1-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis plays host to OFI versus Atromitos in Super League 1 (matchday 5). Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
OFI at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Atromitos (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in OFI's favour (2.10 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 44% versus Atromitos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (OFI 44% | Atromitos 28%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: OFI surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Atromitos have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.93 xG and Atromitos 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.036 / defence 1.004 | Atromitos attack 0.829 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.148. Data: built from OFI's last 30 games and Atromitos's last 29. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: OFI 57% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 15%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.75 | Draw 3.62 | Atromitos 6.61. The model has a clear lean to OFI (57%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 50% (last 10 home games) | Atromitos 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (OFI 30 games, Atromitos 29) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 57% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG OFI 1.93 / Atromitos 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.036 / def 1.004 | Atromitos attack 0.829 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: OFI (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Atromitos xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Atromitos FAQs
What time does OFI vs Atromitos kick off?
OFI vs Atromitos kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Atromitos?
OFI 1 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is OFI vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Atromitos part of?
OFI vs Atromitos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 5) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 57% chance of winning, Atromitos a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both OFI and Atromitos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OFI vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
OFI's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.83x) against OFI's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 30 games and Atromitos's last 29, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
57%
1.75
28%
3.62
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
OFI xG
Total xG
2.89
0.96
Atromitos xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
2%
45.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Atromitos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are OFI and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for OFI and 0.96 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Atromitos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 36 games, going 12W 12D 12L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.08 PPG from 36 outings (9W 12D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for OFI against 1.08 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 5W 7D 6L across their last 18 home games, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.61 points per game from their last 18 away games (2W 5D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.00 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Atromitos
Early Season
OFI (Home) vs Atromitos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Early Season
Atromitos
Early Season
❓ OFI vs Atromitos Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Atromitos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 12W 12D 12L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 9W 12D 15L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Atromitos away?
OFI's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.22 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.61 PPG.
Have OFI or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Atromitos in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between OFI and Atromitos, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 0W 4D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OFI
7
Draws
2
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Atromitos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 1, Atromitos have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Atromitos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: OFI 0-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 50%, Atromitos 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (OFI) and 39% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 39% of games; Atromitos in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Atromitos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Atromitos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of OFI's games and 61% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are OFI and Atromitos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of OFI's recent games and 39% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Atromitos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of OFI's recent matches and 67% of Atromitos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI and Atromitos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 5, as OFI and Atromitos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.93 xG and Atromitos 0.96 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. OFI fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Atromitos attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 30/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it OFI 57% | Draw 28% | Atromitos 15%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 44%, Atromitos 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Atromitos's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.33 PPG, Atromitos 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.