Atromitos 1-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atromitos at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Volos NFC make the trip to Stadio Peristeriou to face Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Monday 18 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Peristeriou, Atromitos have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Atromitos are significantly better at Stadio Peristeriou than their overall form suggests.
Volos NFC (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 3.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Atromitos. A 0.80 PPG lead over Volos NFC (0.90 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atromitos lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Volos NFC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Atromitos half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 51% versus Volos NFC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 29% | Volos NFC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.67 xG and Volos NFC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.944 / defence 0.967 | Volos NFC attack 0.868 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.146. Data: 28 Atromitos games / 29 Volos NFC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 51% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 19%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Volos NFC 5.26. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Volos NFC lead the H2H ledger, but Atromitos carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Atromitos 40% | Volos NFC 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Monday 18 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 51% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Atromitos 1.67 / Volos NFC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.944 / def 0.967 | Volos NFC attack 0.868 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Volos NFC xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Atromitos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 18 September 2023 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Atromitos 1 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Atromitos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Volos NFC part of?
Atromitos vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 51% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atromitos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Volos NFC?
Record (3 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 1 | Volos NFC 2W.
What form are Atromitos and Volos NFC in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 3.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atromitos's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Volos NFC's attack (0.87x) against Atromitos's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (28/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
51%
1.95
30%
3.37
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.63
0.96
Volos NFC xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
4%
28.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.96 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atromitos come into this having played 35 games, going 9W 11D 15L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Volos NFC sit at 1.03 PPG from 35 outings (10W 6D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Atromitos against 1.03 for Volos NFC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Atromitos's home form reads 7W 6D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Atromitos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Volos NFC have taken 1.12 points per game from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atromitos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.97 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 9W 11D 15L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 10W 6D 19L in their last 35 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Volos NFC away?
Atromitos's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.59 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atromitos
3
Draws
4
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 3, Volos NFC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Volos NFC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 41% (Atromitos) and 24% (Volos NFC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (Atromitos) and 59% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Volos NFC in 41%; Atromitos have failed to score in 29% of games; Volos NFC in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Atromitos's recent matches and 24% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Atromitos's recent games and 59% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and Volos NFC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 4, as Atromitos and Volos NFC drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.67 xG and Volos NFC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Volos NFC attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 28/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 51% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 19%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 29%, Volos NFC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Volos NFC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.09 PPG, Volos NFC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.