Olympiakos Piraeus 4-0 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 83% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kifisia travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kifisia — last 4 games: 1W 1D 2L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
Kifisia in-play and half-time data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 25% versus Kifisia 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Kifisia 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.94 xG and Kifisia 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.401 / defence 0.661 | Kifisia attack 0.794 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.112. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack rating of 1.401 — their 2.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Kifisia's defence rating of 1.296 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output up. Kifisia's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.58. Olympiakos Piraeus have a tight defence (rating 0.661), which is pulling Kifisia's projected output down. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 30 games and Kifisia's last 4.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 83% | Draw 14% | Kifisia 3%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.20 | Draw 7.33 | Kifisia 31.45. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (83%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 83% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and Kifisia's last 4 games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 30% (last 10 home games) | Kifisia 75% (last 4 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 83% | Draw 14% | Kifisia 3% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.94 / Kifisia 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.401 / def 0.661 | Kifisia attack 0.794 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.94
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Kifisia xG
43%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia FAQs
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Olympiakos Piraeus 4 - 0 Kifisia.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 5) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 83% chance of winning, Kifisia a 3% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.40x the league average against Kifisia's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 30 games and Kifisia's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (12.5%), 4-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
83%
1.20
14%
7.33
3%
31.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.5%
Home win
4 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.94
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.53
0.58
Kifisia xG
1.20
83%
Home win
7.33
14%
Draw
31.45
3%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
5%
18.99
Win to Nil
46%
2.15
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.58 for Kifisia, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 4 games, going 3W 1D 0L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Kifisia sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W-D across their last five.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Kifisia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.75 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Kifisia in 75%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Kifisia
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus (Home) vs Kifisia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Kifisia
Early Season
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia Form FAQs
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 games (2.50 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Kifisia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Kifisia in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won Olympiakos Piraeus 4-0 Kifisia.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Kifisia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
Draws
0
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Kifisia have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Kifisia 2-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 25%, Kifisia 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 100% for Kifisia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kifisia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 75% of Kifisia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 100% of Kifisia's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Kifisia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 100% of Kifisia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Kifisia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Kifisia 4-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.94 xG and Kifisia 0.58 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.40 / defence 0.66 against Kifisia attack 0.79 / defence 1.30, drawn from 30/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 83% | Draw 14% | Kifisia 3%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 83%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, Kifisia 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kifisia's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus scored 4 against a 2.75 average — above their attacking norm. Kifisia managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.