Lamia 2-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OFI make the trip to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to face Lamia in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lamia's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
OFI have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, OFI have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. OFI are 0.50 PPG clear of Lamia in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Lamia 1W, OFI 3W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 1–4 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lamia half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 42% versus OFI 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 42% | OFI 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.55 xG and OFI 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.864 / defence 0.992 | OFI attack 0.959 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 0.840. Data: 29 Lamia games / 29 OFI games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lamia 54% | Draw 27% | OFI 18%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | OFI 5.56. Lamia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamia are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form OFI (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 40% | OFI 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 54% | Draw 27% | OFI 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Lamia 1.55 / OFI 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.864 / def 0.992 | OFI attack 0.959 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.639 / away 0.840 • Poisson stance: Lamia (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
0.80
OFI xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs OFI kick off?
Lamia vs OFI kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs OFI?
Lamia 2 - 2 OFI.
Where is Lamia vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs OFI part of?
Lamia vs OFI is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 54% chance of winning, OFI a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lamia and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and OFI?
Record (6 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 2 | OFI 3W.
What form are Lamia and OFI in?
Lamia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. OFI (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.86) and OFI's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.96x) against Lamia's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.67
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.35
0.80
OFI xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
4%
25.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lamia and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Lamia and 0.80 for OFI, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 6W 15D 15L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI's form line: 12W 11D 13L from 36 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Lamia against 1.31 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.18 PPG from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L).
On the road, OFI have gone 7W 4D 6L from 17 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lamia are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.14 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and OFI in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 6W 15D 15L in their last 36 games (0.92 PPG), while OFI have gone 12W 11D 13L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.18 PPG; OFI away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Lamia or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, OFI in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 1-4 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
5
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, OFI have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when OFI 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 41%, OFI 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lamia) and 47% (OFI).
On the defensive side: OFI in 35%; Lamia have failed to score in 35% of games; OFI in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Lamia's recent matches and 41% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lamia's recent games and 47% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and OFI tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, OFI in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamia and OFI share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 4, as Lamia and OFI drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.55 xG and OFI 0.80 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. OFI outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.86 / defence 0.99 against OFI attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 54% | Draw 27% | OFI 18%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 42%, OFI 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.92 PPG, OFI 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.