Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panetolikos make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Panetolikos have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panetolikos's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Aris Thessalonikis's 1.40 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Panetolikos's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Panetolikos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Aris Thessalonikis lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 50% versus Panetolikos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 61% | Panetolikos 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.83 xG and Panetolikos 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.149 / defence 1.100 | Panetolikos attack 0.989 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.094. Data: 30 Aris Thessalonikis games / 29 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 49% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 21%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Panetolikos 4.76. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 80% | Panetolikos 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 49% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.83 / Panetolikos 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.149 / def 1.100 | Panetolikos attack 0.989 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Panetolikos xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 3 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 49% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
Record (4 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 3W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 1W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.99x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.42
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
3.02
1.19
Panetolikos xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
3%
29.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.19 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 36 games, going 14W 6D 16L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Panetolikos sit at 0.89 PPG from 36 outings (7W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 11W 1D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Panetolikos have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.92 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Panetolikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 14W 6D 16L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 7W 11D 18L in their last 36 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panetolikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.00 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 5-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
0
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Panetolikos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 65%, Panetolikos 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Aris Thessalonikis and 47% for Panetolikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 65% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Aris Thessalonikis's matches and 47% of Panetolikos's.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Aris Thessalonikis run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Panetolikos 3-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.83 xG and Panetolikos 1.19 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panetolikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.15 / defence 1.10 against Panetolikos attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 49% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 21%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 61%, Panetolikos 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Panetolikos's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.