Levadiakos 5-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 59% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Volos NFC travel to Levadia Stadium to take on Levadiakos in Super League 1 (Conference League Group - 3). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Levadiakos have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Levadiakos have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Levadiakos are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Volos NFC stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Volos NFC away from home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 0.80 PPG, Volos NFC 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Levadiakos: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 2 for Volos NFC, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Jan 2026, ended Levadiakos 3–1 Volos NFC — a Levadiakos win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Levadiakos and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 56% versus Volos NFC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 56% | Volos NFC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.94 xG and Volos NFC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.271 / defence 1.070 | Volos NFC attack 0.819 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack rating of 1.271 — their 1.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 52 games and Volos NFC's last 52.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 59% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 16%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.69 | Draw 4.03 | Volos NFC 6.30. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 59% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Levadiakos 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Levadiakos's last 10 home games and Volos NFC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Levadiakos 70% (last 10 home games) | Volos NFC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Group - 3 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 59% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Levadiakos 1.94 / Volos NFC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.271 / def 1.070 | Volos NFC attack 0.819 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Volos NFC xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Levadiakos vs Volos NFC FAQs
What time does Levadiakos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Levadiakos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Levadiakos 5 - 2 Volos NFC.
Where is Levadiakos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Volos NFC part of?
Levadiakos vs Volos NFC is a Super League 1 fixture (Conference League Group - 3) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 59% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Levadiakos and Volos NFC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Levadiakos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Levadiakos's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Levadiakos's last 52 games and Volos NFC's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
59%
1.69
25%
4.03
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.88
0.93
Volos NFC xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
2%
43.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Levadiakos vs Volos NFC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.93 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 25W 18D 21L from 64 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 33L across 64 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 1.45 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 14W 8D 10L from their last 32 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 11W 2D 19L across their last 32 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Levadiakos are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.02 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
Levadiakos (Home) vs Volos NFC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Levadiakos
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
❓ Levadiakos vs Volos NFC Form FAQs
What form are Levadiakos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 25W 18D 21L in their last 64 games (1.45 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 20W 11D 33L in their last 64 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Volos NFC away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.56 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Feb 2023, when Volos NFC won Levadiakos 0-3 Volos NFC.
Levadiakos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Levadiakos
1
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Levadiakos vs Volos NFC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Volos NFC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Levadiakos have won 7, Volos NFC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Volos NFC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Levadiakos 0-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Volos NFC?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 56%, Volos NFC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Levadiakos) and 53% (Volos NFC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Volos NFC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Levadiakos vs Volos NFC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Levadiakos and Volos NFC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 44% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Levadiakos and Volos NFC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Levadiakos's matches and 53% of Volos NFC's.
Do Levadiakos and Volos NFC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 72% of Volos NFC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Volos NFC 5-2 at Levadia Stadium, Conference League Group - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.94 xG and Volos NFC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.27 / defence 1.07 against Volos NFC attack 0.82 / defence 1.17, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 59% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 16%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 56%, Volos NFC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Volos NFC's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.45 PPG, Volos NFC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.